Algeria’s rupture with the United Arab Emirates reveals a Mediterranean increasingly shaped by the Gulf, the Sahel, Russia and Europe. Italy may already be sitting at the intersection of this new map.
London – On 10 September, Algeria announced that it was severing diplomatic relations with the United Arab Emirates, accusing Abu Dhabi of increasingly “provocative or hostile” actions.
Behind the rupture lie deeper disagreements involving Morocco, Western Sahara, relations with Israel and the growing influence of Gulf actors across North Africa and the Sahel.
It would be easy to read this as another bilateral diplomatic crisis. But perhaps we are looking at the wrong map.
Because the Mediterranean is no longer shaped only by the countries that surround it.
The Gulf has entered the Mediterranean
The UAE has become an increasingly important political and economic actor far beyond the Gulf. Its capital is present in Egypt; its political and security interests have extended into Libya and the wider African space; it supports Morocco’s position on Western Sahara and has developed relationships and investments across the Sahel.
At the same time, Abu Dhabi is becoming an increasingly significant investor in Europe. There was an almost symbolic coincidence on the very day Algeria announced the diplomatic rupture: the UAE announced plans for €40 billion in new investment in Germany, covering areas including industry, energy, data centres and defence.
There is no evidence of any connection between the two events. But place them on the same map: on one side, a diplomatic relationship collapses in North Africa; on the other, an economic relationship deepens in the industrial heart of Europe.
That is the geography of a changing Mediterranean.
Algeria is also more than Algeria
Algeria cannot be understood simply as a North African country either. It maintains a longstanding strategic relationship with Russia, particularly in defence. It remains central to the Western Sahara question. And after Europe reduced its dependence on Russian energy, Algeria became even more important to European energy security.
For Italy in particular, that relationship is fundamental. Algeria supplied around 20 billion cubic metres of gas to Italy in 2025, equivalent to roughly 30% of Italian consumption. Rome and Algiers have also progressively expanded their relationship beyond energy into industry, security and the Mattei Plan.
Only on 30 July, Italy and Algeria held their fifth Strategic Dialogue in Rome. Six weeks later, Algeria broke relations with the UAE.
And here Italy enters our map.
Italy sits between two relationships
Rome has built strong relations with Algiers, but it has also built a strategic partnership with Abu Dhabi. The UAE has announced plans for up to $40 billion of investment in Italy, while bilateral cooperation increasingly covers energy, defence, space, technology and infrastructure.
And on 6 July, Italy and the Gulf Cooperation Council established a structured mechanism for political consultations covering maritime security, critical infrastructure, energy and strategic corridors.
The sequence is worth observing: 6 July — Italy strengthens its institutional dialogue with the Gulf. 30 July — Italy strengthens its strategic dialogue with Algeria. 10 September — Algeria breaks diplomatic relations with the UAE.
This does not make Italy a mediator. Nobody has asked Rome to mediate, and there is no evidence that it intends to do so. But it does place Italy in an unusual position: it has meaningful relationships on both sides of a new regional fracture.
Perhaps the more interesting word, therefore, is not mediator.
It is connector.
Europe needs a new map
Europe is not unaware of this transformation. Its new Pact for the Mediterranean already recognises a “Common Mediterranean Space” at the intersection of Europe, Africa and Asia and envisages progressively extending cooperation towards Gulf countries.
That is significant. But events may be moving faster than institutional geography.
Energy connects Algeria to Europe. Capital connects the Gulf to Europe. Security connects the Mediterranean to the Sahel. Russia remains an important actor in North Africa and across parts of Africa. Trade corridors connect Mediterranean ports with territories far beyond the coastline. Migration moves through all of them.
Yet we still often discuss the Maghreb, Sahel, Gulf and Mediterranean as separate geopolitical files. The actors themselves increasingly do not.
Italy’s opportunity
This is where geography may once again matter. Italy sits physically in the centre of the Mediterranean, but geography alone creates no political influence. Relationships might.
The Mattei Plan is usually discussed in terms of investment, energy, migration and development. Perhaps its longer-term importance could be greater. If Italy can maintain credible relationships with North Africa, the Gulf and the rest of Europe simultaneously, the Mattei Plan could become part of a broader diplomatic infrastructure connecting spaces that European policy has traditionally treated separately.
Not by choosing between Algeria and the Emirates, or between Africa and the Gulf, and certainly not by imagining a return to traditional spheres of influence. But by recognising that the emerging multipolar world is built around countries participating in several relationships at the same time.
Algeria can maintain a strategic relationship with Russia while remaining indispensable to European energy security. The UAE can belong to BRICS while investing tens of billions in Europe. Italy can deepen its relationship with Algeria while simultaneously building strategic ties with the Gulf.
These are not necessarily contradictions. They are increasingly how the international system works.
The Mediterranean beyond the Mediterranean
The Algeria–UAE rupture may eventually be resolved, or it may deepen. But its significance goes beyond the future relationship between Algiers and Abu Dhabi. It offers us a glimpse of a larger transformation.
The Mediterranean is becoming the meeting point of European energy needs, Gulf capital, African infrastructure, Sahel security and Eurasian influence.
Perhaps we should therefore stop asking only what is happening in the Mediterranean and begin asking what is happening to the idea of the Mediterranean itself.
Because the map is changing.
And Italy may already be sitting at one of its most important intersections.
Sources
Algerian authorities and Reuters — Algeria’s decision to sever diplomatic relations with the United Arab Emirates, 10 September 2026.
Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs — Fifth Italy–Algeria Strategic Dialogue, Rome, 30 July 2026.
Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs — Italy–Gulf Cooperation Council political consultation mechanism, 6 July 2026.
Italian and UAE governments — Italy–UAE Strategic Partnership and investment commitments.
European Commission — Pact for the Mediterranean and its Action Plan.
Reuters — Algeria–Italy energy relations and UAE investment plans in Germany.
